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By Yuriy Maevskiy: Senior Analyst in the Investment Research Department
17 March 2014

According to the finalized data, inflation in Eurozone in February 2014 (annual value) appeared to be 0.7%, which is the lowest result of the last 4 years. Economists predicted growth by 0.8%.

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Monthly value of inflation grew by 0.3%.

The highest growth of annual prices is noted in tobacco products (+0.08%), electricity (+0.06%) and services of restaurants/cafes (+0.06%). Decrease of prices can be seen in the telecommunications (-0.10%), transport fuel (-0.30%) and heating (-0.07%).

Negative inflation was registered in Bulgaria (-2.1%), Cyprus (-1.3%), Greece (-0.9%) and Croatia (-0.2%). The highest growth of inflation was noted in Finland, Malta (+1.6% each) and Austria (+1.5%).

After the release of the weak data about inflation, traders are afraid that ECB can soften loan policy in order to decrease risk of deflation.

The results of the Federal Reserve meeting, where the decision about further QE3 cuts will be made, is an additional risk factor for euro.

Let us remind that stimulation cuts have started in December 2013, when monthly bonds buyouts were cut by $10 billion to $75 billion. January meeting approved QE3 cut by another $10 billion to $65 billion.

We think that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting stimulating measures, which will support the US dollar.

EURUSD looks locally overbought from the technical point of view. If 1.38700 is breached, then correction can start. 1.38300, 1.38000 and 1.37500 will become the nearest targets.

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Situation on the futures market also shows further technical correction for EURUSD.

According to the report by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, namely COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS, the net positions of hedgers (blue on the chart) is located on the relatively low level of -22,132.00 contracts, meanwhile in the beginning of February 2014 this number was 40,955.00. A decrease of the net positions of hedgers indicates that market participants expect decrease of the EURUSD rate in the nearest future.

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A significant increase of the long positions by large speculators (green on the chart) also indicates further decrease of EURUSD.

This information is an analytical review of Capital and FX markets. The material presented, and the information contained, is investment research and should in no way be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Investment Firms Law 144(I)/2007 of the Republic of Cyprus, or any other form of personal advice, which relates to certain types of transactions, with certain types of financial instruments.

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