Today all the markets come to a head regarding the "QE-3 turning", and today we will be able to draw conclusions on their direction for the medium-term prospect. Unfortunately, it is never easy for the meeting of the Central Banks due to the fact that too many nuances can affect the dynamics of the financial markets: how accurately are the plans for the end of the program of stimulation of the economy going to be announced? what terms will be exposed? in what volumes will the reduction will be carried out? what kind of target points will be chosen by the FED in order to take actions? And so on.
The latest macroeconomic data obviously testify in favor of the recovery of the economy of the USA, and given the current conditions, it will be difficult for the FED not to take any action. In fact, the QE-3 program reduction on 5-10 billion Dollars is already obviously included into the prices, and participants of the market are potentially ready for a similar event, and, if together with reduction of the program of repayment of assets, the target level on unemployment will be lowered to a level of 5.5%, it can be positively apprehended by the markets, as this fact will remove expectations of an increase of interest rates for almost another 2 years.
Anyway, at the programmed reduction for an amount of not less than 10 billion Dollars, we will see a small short-term correction in all stock markets, and strengthening of the index of Dollar to all currencies. Furthermore, it is necessary to pay attention to debt market if growth of profitability on American bonds is going to be resumed with new force, which will mean that investors apprehended results of meeting of the FED negatively, and it is worth preparing for correction in stock markets as well.
As for yesterday’s trading session, the American market finished the day in a minus. Investors’ opinions are still very different in relation to the decision of the FED, which will be announced in the evening, which stresses the markets and increases uncertainty. Investors prefer not to hurry in regards to their actions. Following the results of the trading session, the Dow Jones index went down by 0.06% to the level of 15875.26 points, S&P 500 decreased by 0.31% up to the level of 1781.00 points, Nasdaq lost 0.14% and reached the level of 4023.68 points.
Oil decreased the day before on expectations of reduction of demand, and also growth of deliveries from the Middle East. Commercial stocks of Oil decreased last week by 2.5 million barrels. This morning Brent is losing 0.05% and is traded on a level of 108.38$ per barrel, WTI is up for 0.22% at the price of 97.68$ per barrel. Gold and Silver are up by 0.17% and 0.36% accordingly, bargaining at the prices of 1232.14$ and 19.91$ per troy ounce.