WEEKLY FORECAST, MARCH 17-21, 2014
Next week will be filled with macro and microeconomic news from the major world’s economies. The results of the US Federal Reserve meeting regarding the further cuts of QE3 program will be the most important news of the week. Let us revise key events.
Monday, March 17
Eurozone will publish CPIs in the afternoon. Experts think that consumer prices grew by 0.8% (annual values). If data appears to be worse than a forecast, then deflation expectations will get stronger.
Low inflation or deflation are key risks according to the ECB. In order to fight the deflation the Central Bank can soften its monetary policy, which will make Euro weaker.
Attention of traders will shift to the US during the day, where NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and information about Industrial Production will be published.
Tuesday, March 18
FOMC meeting starts on Tuesday. It should define further US and the Federal Reserve policy on the open (monetary) market in regards to money circulation, credit volume and interest rates.
Germany will publish ZEW current conditions and economic sentiment indices in the afternoon.
US stats will be published at 2:30 p.m.: CPI, building permits and new housing starts.
Governors of Canadian and English Central Banks will make announcements at the end of the day.
Wednesday, March 19
Japan will present its numbers about trade balance late at night. Experts forecast reduction of the deficit from 2.790 billion yens to 590 billion yens.
Britain will publish labor market stats at 11:30 a.m.: unemployment rate and the claimant count change.
The Federal Reserve will announce its decision on the interest rate at 8 p.m. (GMT +2). No surprises are expected, and rate should stay at 0.25%.
FOMC decision about the future of QE3 will become the key event of the day and the week.
Let us remind that the Federal Reserve started to cut stimulation buyouts in December 2013, when monthly bonds buyouts were cut by $10 billion to $75 billion. January meeting approved QE3 cut by another $10 billion to $65 billion.
US economy was providing mixed data after the last FOMC meeting, which gives traders hope that the Federal Reserve can temporary stop the QE3 cuts.
Thursday, March 20
The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Mr. Kuroda, will hold a conference at 9:15 a.m.
Swiss National Bank will announce its decision on the interest rate at 10:30 a.m.
US labor market stats will be announced at 2:30 p.m., and will include number of primary and secondary unemployment claims.
Home sales and CB Leading Index will be published at 4 p.m.
The results of the banks stress tests will be announced at 10:30 p.m. They can cause volatility on the market.
Friday, March 21
Australia will publish its Conference Board Leading Index at 1 a.m.
Eurozone will publish recent Consumer Confidence index during the day.
Canada will announce its CPI at 2:30 p.m.
This information is an analytical review of Capital and FX markets. The material presented, and the information contained, is investment research and should in no way be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Investment Firms Law 144(I)/2007 of the Republic of Cyprus, or any other form of personal advice, which relates to certain types of transactions, with certain types of financial instruments.
About the author
Yuriy Maevskiy: Senior Analyst in the Investment Research Department
Since a very young age, Yuriy was interested in the financial markets, especially in the stock and precious metals markets. After graduating from university in 2010, he joined the Client support department at Liteforex (ex. Mayzus).
Having spent some time in the reception, transmission and execution department after his customer service stint, Yuriy was then transferred to the Investment Research Department in 2014. Being transferred to this department allowed him to put into practice his years of experience and undeniable talent in predicting trends and researching, and he is now providing full and comprehensive overviews and analysis on a daily and weekly basis.
Yuriy publishes daily reviews of the Forex market and evaluates major events that can affect instruments trading (currencies, precious metals, stock quotations etc.). He uses both fundamental and technical analysis whilst preparing analytical articles. As a young and gifted individual, we welcome Yuriy into our analytical team and look forward to following him throughout his new career path.